That ranking isn’t a disaster by itself 58th through 62nd on that list is, in order: Zach LaVine, Kevin Durant, Herro, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Jayson Tatum. That ratio ranks 60th out of 66 players with 500-plus assists over that span. Over the last two seasons, Herro’s tallied only 1.6 assists for every turnover. But he’s not a great passer, and he often bites off more than he can chew with ambitious attempts that don’t meet their intended targets. He’s a decent passer who collects a decent number of assists in Miami’s egalitarian offensive system. While Herro’s own output therefore suffers, he also hasn’t displayed tremendous playmaking potential. Lillard, by contrast, has been above average-in many cases well above average-in true shooting percentage in every healthy season of his career Tyrese Maxey, a common if controversial comp for Herro over the last month, has also been comfortably above average in each of the last two seasons. Those factors mean that in every season of his NBA career thus far, Herro has rated slightly below the league average in both effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentage. Out of 53 qualified players with a 25 percent or higher usage rate last season, Herro ranked 52nd in free throw attempt rate, ahead of only Klay Thompson. And that efficiency looks even worse when accounting for his lack of free throws, which stems from his jumper-heavy approach. Herro isn’t at their level as a scorer, however, so a difficult shot diet means his efficiency suffers. Out of 180 players who attempted at least 500 shots last season, per Second Spectrum, Herro had the 16th-hardest shot quality, in the neighborhood of lead guards like Luka, De’Aaron Fox, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. A lack of explosiveness means Herro barely gets to the rim (16th percentile in rim rate last season, per Cleaning the Glass) instead, he takes a lot of midrange jumpers (86th percentile). First, his scoring isn’t nearly as stellar as his overall numbers, and his silky shooting stroke, suggest. Look at the other names on that statistical comp list again!īut Herro’s demerits are more nuanced, and worth teasing out in full, to help explain why his value is so hard to pin down. ![]() Like all good fun facts, those stats lie a little bit-there are definite era effects that benefit Herro, and he barely surpasses the 20/5/4 marks-but they still point to prodigious potential. He’s shot well in clutch situations, too, for whatever predictive value that limited sample provides. Only three other NBA players have averaged at least 2.5 made 3s per game through their age-23 season, like Herro has (minimum 200 games): Trae Young, Anthony Edwards, and Luka. Herro is also a historically prolific long-range shooter. In chronological order: Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant, Tracy McGrady, Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Chris Paul, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic, Jayson Tatum, Ja Morant, and Luka Doncic. Every other player this century who met those criteria was a superstar. Last season, Herro averaged 20 points, five rebounds, and four assists per game at the age of 23. It’s easy to believe in a player who boasts such a rare blend of youth and productivity. The bird’s-eye view of Herro’s present and future outlook remains the same as before last season. Yet at the same time, for his detractors, Herro’s fourth NBA season further exposed his limitations as a two-way player-and that was true even before the Heat maneuvered a shocking run to the Finals with Herro on the bench, waylaid by a broken hand early in their first playoff game. Or at least, if he did, Lillard would have taken his talents to South Beach already.įor Herro’s believers, the 2022-23 season provided more evidence of his potential, as he returned to the starting lineup following Sixth Man of the Year honors in 2021-22. That “next” available star is Lillard-but a year later, it seems more clear that Herro doesn’t have the upside to move the needle in a superstar trade. He has reached this strange point just as he becomes the key veteran in any potential Miami Heat trade package for Kevin Durant, Donovan Mitchell, or whichever star becomes available next.” So just how good is Herro? Last summer, ESPN’s Zach Lowe wrote that the Miami guard is “perhaps the most polarizing high-wattage player in the NBA. ![]() Even a team in no rush to trade its star, as Portland professes, would find it hard to turn down a massive offer of, say, three of the Heat’s own first-round picks plus two more from another team. ![]() In other words, the prospective blockbuster might hinge on Herro, and whether the extra juice he’d add to the deal is sufficient for Portland’s liking. Will Portland finally give in and trade Dame Lillard? We’re keeping a close watch on all of the biggest free agents, trade targets, retirement bluffers, and more in our new offseason tracker.
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